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To estimate excess deaths (that is, deaths that could have been prevented had the low- and middle-education groups experienced the same mortality decline as the high-education group ( m t )), we projected counterfactual death rates using the high-education groups \(\overline{\mathrm{AARR \) applied to each groups own baseline rates: where \({\bar{m _{\mathrm{base \) is the mean of the 1992 and 1993 age-standardized death rates for the low- or middle-education group