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Tobacco simulation models have been used to estimate the impact of specific state polices,11 and synthetic cohort methods have been used to estimate the impact of state tobacco control programmes by creating a counterfactual no-programme scenario through statistical comparison of states experiences.1214 In contrast, we estimated the impact of all sources of prevalence decline in Minnesota from 1998 to 2017 by simulating a hypothetical scenario with smoking prevalence held constant at 1997 levels and comparing it to a scenario with actual smoking prevalence trends

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